Analysis and Prospect of Floating Photovoltaic Market in 10 ASEAN Countries

According to a report published by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), floating photovoltaics could play a key role in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional goal of reaching 35 percent of installed capacity from renewable sources by 2025 .

The report identified 7,301 water bodies (88 reservoirs and 7,213 natural water bodies) suitable for deploying floating photovoltaics in Southeast Asia. Overall, the floating photovoltaic potential of reservoirs is 134-278GW, and natural water bodies are 343-768GW.
The report notes that the potential for floating PV is even more pronounced in reservoirs in Laos and Malaysia.
Meanwhile, natural water bodies in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand have even greater potential. In Vietnam, regardless of the type of water body, its potential is relatively stable.

Brunei
Brunei relies heavily on natural gas, accounting for about 78%, followed by coal power generation, accounting for 21%. Its goal is to generate 30% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2035. Unlike neighboring Southeast Asian countries, Brunei lacks installed capacity and great potential for hydropower development, which limits Brunei's ability to integrate floating photovoltaics with existing hydropower infrastructure.
According to the report, Brunei has no technical potential to build floating photovoltaics on artificial reservoirs. However, the assessment identified 18 natural water bodies that show promise for future floating PV projects. The potential floating PV capacity on these bodies of water varies from 137MW to 669MW, depending on the distance from the coast.

Cambodia
Cambodia has set an installed capacity mix target by 2030, aiming for 55% hydro, 6.5% biomass and 3.5% solar, with fossil fuels expected to account for the remaining 35%.
Currently, hydropower is the main source of electricity, accounting for about 45% of total electricity generation by 2020. It is estimated that the floating photovoltaic potential of Cambodian reservoirs is 15-29GW, and the floating photovoltaic potential of natural water bodies is 22-46GW.
Indonesia
With abundant renewable resources and an ambitious goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2060, Indonesia's power generation mix currently relies mainly on coal (60%), followed by natural gas (18%), hydropower, geothermal and biofuels (17%). Renewable energy and petroleum (3%).
Although Indonesia has significant wind and solar resources, these technologies are not yet widely deployed. Indonesian state-owned power company PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara plans to add about 21GW of renewable energy capacity between 2021 and 2030, accounting for more than half of the new capacity.
Of this planned capacity, hydropower is expected to contribute 4.9GW and solar is expected to contribute 2.5GW.
According to the report, a total of 1,858 water bodies (including 19 reservoirs and 1,839 natural water bodies) were identified as suitable for floating photovoltaic projects. The technology potential assessment shows a wide range of floating PV capacity, ranging from 170GW to 364GW.
Laos
Laos aims to have renewable energy account for 30% of its total energy consumption by 2025.
According to the report, unlike most other ASEAN countries, Laos has a higher reservoir floating PV potential than natural water bodies. This may be due to the fact that Laos has a large amount of domestic hydropower resources.
Considering the three reservoirs assessed in the report, Laos has an estimated floating PV potential of 5-10GW. Laos has about 2-5GW of natural water floating photovoltaic potential.
Combined with the potential of the reservoir, this equates to a larger range of 9-15GW. However, after the use of transmission filters to exclude the nearest water body over 25 km from the transmission line, the potential of the reservoir remained the same, while the potential of the natural water body decreased by about 8.4-10.1%, depending on the distance from the coast assumption.
Malaysia
Malaysia plans to increase its renewable energy capacity to 4GW by 2030. In addition, Malaysia has set a target to have 31% of its installed electricity capacity come from renewable sources by 2025.
Like Laos, Malaysia has demonstrated greater potential for floating PV installations on reservoirs, with an estimated 23-54GW, and natural water bodies with a potential of 13-30GW. As of 2021, Malaysia's total installed power capacity is 39GW.
Another study conducted on six specific sites in Malaysia showed that floating PV projects could generate around 14.5GWh of electricity per year. The report further extends this finding by considering all viable water bodies in Malaysia, with the potential to generate around 47-109GWh of annual electricity generation from floating PV projects.
Myanmar
By 2025, Myanmar's goal is to achieve the goal of 20% of the installed capacity of renewable energy. Under Myanmar's 2015 Energy Master Plan, the goal is to increase the share of hydropower in electricity generation from 50 percent in 2021 to 57 percent in 2030.
The report pointed out that Myanmar's reservoir floating photovoltaic potential is relatively low, ranging from 18-35GW. In comparison, the potential of natural water bodies is estimated at between 21-47GW. The potential capacity of the two combined exceeds the total electricity generation in Myanmar. As of 2021, Myanmar's total power generation is about 7.6GW.
After using transmission filters to exclude the nearest water body with a transmission line greater than 25 km, the potential capacity of the reservoir was reduced by 1.7-2.1%, and the natural water body was reduced by 9.7-16.2%, depending on the distance from the coast assumption.
the Philippines
The Philippines has set several priorities for the power sector, including meeting growing electricity demand, achieving universal access to electricity by 2022, and installing 15GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
In 2019, the Philippines successfully launched its first floating photovoltaic project, and construction of other projects began in the following years. Potential assessments show a significantly higher capacity range for floating PV installations on natural water bodies, estimated at 42-103GW, compared to reservoirs with a potential capacity of 2-5GW.
Potential reservoir capacity remained unchanged after the use of transmission filters to exclude water bodies located more than 25 kilometers from the nearest transmission line. At the same time, the potential capacity of natural water bodies decreased by about 1.7-5.2%.
Singapore
Singapore has proposed a renewable energy goal of reaching 2GW of installed solar capacity by 2030 and meeting 30% of its energy needs through low-carbon electricity imports by 2035.
The report identified one reservoir and six natural water bodies in Singapore with a potential of 67-153MW in reservoirs and 206-381MW in natural water bodies. Based on 2021, Singapore's installed power capacity is 12GW.
Singapore has shown great interest in offshore and near-shore floating photovoltaic projects. In this field, Singapore has built a 5MW floating photovoltaic project along the coast.
Thailand
Thailand plans to build more than 2.7GW of floating PV projects on nine different reservoirs by 2037. The report shows that the potential of floating photovoltaics in reservoirs is huge, ranging from 33-65GW, and natural water bodies are 68-152GW. Thailand's installed power capacity in 2021 will be 55GW.
When the transmission filter was used to exclude the nearest water body over 25 km from the transmission line, the potential capacity of the reservoir was reduced by 1.8-2.5%, and the natural water body was reduced by 3.9-5.9%.
Vietnam
Vietnam has set an ambitious target to deploy 31-38GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030, in line with its broader goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050.
Given its heavy reliance on hydropower, Vietnam offers a favorable environment for stand-alone and hybrid floating PV projects. Among Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam has the most reservoirs suitable for floating photovoltaics, with a total of 22. The floating PV potential of these reservoirs is estimated to be around 21-46GW.
Similarly, the potential of floating photovoltaics in Vietnam's natural water bodies is also between 21-54GW. When the transmission filter was used to exclude the nearest water body with a distance of more than 25 km from the transmission line, the potential capacity of the reservoir remained unchanged, while the potential capacity of the natural water body decreased by less than 0.5%.
In May, Blueleaf Energy and SunAsia Energy were awarded contracts by the Philippine government to build and manage what it says is the world's largest floating PV project with a total capacity of 610.5MW.
An earlier NREL report pointed out that by adding floating photovoltaic projects on top of water bodies with existing hydropower stations, the solar photovoltaic system alone can generate about 7.6TW of clean energy per year.